International, Europe and the United States economic data are good: the euro area in June manufacturing purchasing managers PMI initial value and service industry PMI are higher than expected, and hit a new high over the past year, indicating that manufacturing demand and service needs both Pick up, the euro zone economic recovery accelerated. In the United States, new home sales rose 2.2% MoM in May, the highest since November 2009, while the US labor market rebounded steadily, rising wages to boost consumption, so that interest rates are expected to heat up again. In addition, the Greek rescue plan is approaching, the progress of debt negotiations slow, Greece back to Europe risk warming. Comprehensive factors, the dollar is expected to enter the oscillation pattern, the metal price and the negative correlation between the dollar pattern will continue short.
With the dollar trend on the impact of further decline in metal prices, non-ferrous metal price trend analysis focused on domestic demand. The second quarter of domestic demand in the doldrums than expected, the season is not strong metal prices for a continuous test. But with the steady growth policy in depth, the effect will gradually appear, the third quarter of the situation will be improved.
The recently released economic data also provided support for the recovery in demand. The HSBC PMI initial value was 49.6 in June, with a previous value of 49.2, rebounding for two consecutive months. New orders rebounded significantly, imports of raw materials expansion, showing a weak domestic economy to stabilize.
In addition, the recent decline in domestic inventories, the spot premium increase, the price played a greater support. Therefore, the previous period of short-term non-ferrous metal index stabilized the probability of stabilization.
Copper: LME and copper stocks in the previous period have declined to varying degrees, of which copper stocks in the previous period fell by nearly 50% compared with May. Spot, due to copper continued to fall since June, the upstream shipments will weaken, but the downstream is still on demand goods, resulting in short-term tight supply of the spot market, thus raising the domestic spot premium. We believe that in the supply adjustment, inventory decline, spot strong support futures in the context of copper prices are expected to stabilize recently.
Zinc: the current supply of zinc is still at a high level, zinc pressure. But zinc stocks continue to decline, the stock to maintain the structure of the premium, but also to the price of certain support. Is expected in the short term zinc price of 15,500 yuan / ton in the vicinity of a certain support, but the space is limited, the latter will remain weak oscillation pattern.
Aluminum: the excess supply is still hovering over the aluminum price lingering haze. Although since the beginning of several major Daya Lianhuo joint stock price, but can not reverse the situation of supply and demand imbalance in aluminum. The price of more than a year has been three times to step 12,700 yuan / ton and not broken, is expected here will still have some support.
Lead: the current lead is better fundamentals. With the national environmental policy continued to promote the corresponding reduction in lead supply, coupled with the production of lead ore cut their own regulation, resulting in relatively tight supply of lead, lead price thus supported. Recently, the previous period of lead inventory decline, the spot to maintain the premium structure, but also to further support the lead price higher.